El Niño or not?

Greetings, and Happy Valentine's Day...  As an amateur weather observer, I am having a hard time understanding what has happend to our Winter surf season (or, more appropriately, lack thereof)?  Typically, a strong sea surface temperature anomoly (SST) along the equatorial Pacific commonly known as "El Niño" means an above-average swell model will develop, as the "Pineapple Express" shoots the storm track via the jetstream right over Central and Southern California.  These are typically wet weather years.  2006/2007 has been nothing but a disappointment so far, and time is running out quickly.  A glance a today's SST anomoly chart reveals a bizarre temperature pattern, with the warm band at the equator abutting a huge area of cooler-than-normal water in the Eastern Pacific Region....



Right smack in the middle of the warm band is a cold pocket - more reminiscent of the La Niña weather phenomenon...  What will come of the remainder of the season?  We shall to wait and see.  The Southern ocean looks warmer than usual, so perhaps the "Southern-Hemi" systems coming this Summer will make up for this weak Winter surf season...
 

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